“Our leading indicator - the one that's never lied to us like the politicians - suggests only 23 percent probability of recession over the next 12 months, that's very low.”
“This in some terms has been one of the mildest recessions on record, ... but it has been a severe recession by business standards and by the standards of the industrial sector.”
“Two recessions in more than eighteen years is not a bad E.R.A. -- earned recession average. The bottom line is he did a very good job as Fed chairman.”
“Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.”
“The chances of Japan going into another recession are more than 50 percent within this year.”
“On the [jobless] claims, you're now moving into a range that suggests a recession. I don't even know if many of the airline layoffs have hit this number yet, so it's going to up big time.”
“I'm not predicting a double-dip recession, but the odds of it have gone up. Instead of 5 percent, there's maybe a 15 or 20 percent chance of it now.”
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